CAC40 – vue d’artiste pour les 3 ans à venir

Je viens de voir Mme Irma, voici ce qu’elle m’a dit, en image :

-75% en 3 ans, pour atteindre 1500 points, mission impossible ?

Puis un cycle d’hyperinflation ?

Wouahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !

Andy Xie – the biggest bubble ever in the global financial world

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040618/federal-reserve-prolonging-trade-war-keeping-biggest-financial

article découvert via zerohedge

Dr Andy Xie is a Shanghai-based independent economist specialising in China and Asia, and writes, speaks and consults on global economics and financial markets. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 and was managing director and head of the firm’s Asia-Pacific economics team until 2006. Prior to that he spent two years with Macquarie Bank in Singapore, where he was an associate director in corporate finance. He also spent five years as an economist with the World Bank. He was voted one of the 50 most influential persons in finance by Bloomberg magazine in 2013.

The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system (06 dec19)

After the interest rate surged in the dollar repo market in September, the US Federal Reserve stepped in with US$260 billion to bring down the rate, essentially bailing out the distressed borrowers behind the move. They were probably from the shadow banking system.
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The US economy is based on debt-financed overconsumption, while China’s is based on debt-financed overinvestment. They lean on each other for balance, like two one-legged men walking along with interlocking arms. The renminbi’s peg to the dollar is both the symbol and substance of this mutual dependence. If this relationship breaks, the world is likely to go into a prolonged adjustment to reach a new equilibrium.
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The uncertainty in the world order is occurring amid the biggest bubble ever in the global financial world. Quantitative easing by China and the US in response to the 2008 crisis led to massive debt build-up and asset appreciation along the way.

As asset markets have become so large, relative to the real economy, their turbulence determines the economic outlook and not, as is normally the case, the other way around. This is why the Fed has cut interest rates during the trade war, even with unemployment at historic lows. It views the ensuing market turbulence as a threat to the economy. The Fed has gone from the financial bubble’s hostage to its guardian.
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The Fed still insists that it is targeting 2 per cent inflation. But, it is doing so by inflating asset prices. As most people don’t own stocks, such an approach has caused a massive stock bubble without lifting inflation much.
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Central banks like the Fed have become very good at keeping up financial bubbles. This is why the current one has been around for so long. But as the bubble gets bigger, it causes stresses in unexpected places. Trump, Brexit, the yellow vests in France, the trade war and Hong Kong are all partly due to this bubble. We may never know when the last straw will land. But that time is surely getting closer.