Dettes – le crédit est il à la fin de son cycle ? #4

RESUME

Depuis quelques temps, certains annoncent (*) que nous arrivons probablement à la fin du (mega)cycle d’endettement. Si cela est vrai, alors ceci est évidemment de la plus haute importance. Voici alors une grosse compilation, essentiellement de graphes, montrant le niveau d’endettement dans lequel nous sommes. Cela fait peur. Nous avons hypothéqué massivement le futur.

(*) par exemple : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-08/ray-dalio-warns-1-rise-yields-would-lead-trillions-losses

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/what-bridgewaters-ray-dalio-told-new-york-fed

A noter que le FMI semble tout d’un coup s’alarmer de ce problème :

http://www.abcbourse.com/marches/l-endettement-mondial-a-des-niveaux-record-selon-le-fmi_375015_PX1p.aspx

Ce que je retiens pour le moment :

  • Au vu des montants, la dette est devenue irremboursable.
  • La dynamique d’endettement est exponentielle (ou proche d’une exponentielle).
  • J’ai dans l’idée que ce problème majeur va en (grande?) partie être résolu sur un plan comptable, mais avec, bien évidemment de très désagréables effets collatéraux. D’un point de vu comptable, la dette de l’un (passif du bilan comptable) étant l’actif de l’autre (actif du bilan comptable), alors la dette va se résorber pour une partie par la disparition des actifs associés. En effet, il est illusoire de croire qu’une dette aussi massive sera effacée par une forte croissance (rupture technologique, gains de productivité…).
  • Mais il y a un autre scénario : une dévaluation monétaire très massive de l’ensemble des monnaies (scénario qui a débuté) avec une impression de monnaie totalement débridée (Bill Gross je crois écrivait que l’on allait entendre si fort les rotatives imprimer qu’on allait les entendre jusque sur Mars).
  • Et encore un autre scénario : la dette peut devenir une arme massive de mise en esclavage (ce qu’elle est déjà pour certains pays de notre planète, en Afrique par exemple, alors que l’Amérique latine essaie de s’en extraire).
  • Il y a un facteur déterminant dans ce sujet : la psychologie. Les acteurs économiques étaient portés initialement par la croyance en une « croissance perpétuelle », jusqu’à la crise de 2008, et depuis par la croyance dans la réussite de la politique des Banques Centrales (dans la manipulation, sous différente forme, de la monnaie), capables selon eux de « diriger » notre avenir économique en « réparant » tous nos problèmes.

Cela va peut être toucher à sa fin. Les Banques Centrales, pilotant fortement depuis 2009 les marchés financiers, doutent et commencent à changer de discours depuis quelques semaines (Kuroda à la BoJ, Yves Mersch pour la BCE et Yellen qui tente (?) de remonter les taux de la FED).

Cet article fait suite à l’article précédent sur la vélocité de la monnaie : https://yongtai888.wordpress.com/2016/08/18/velocite-de-la-monnaie-compilation/

Mise à jour au 30/12/2016 : quelques compléments/mises à jour, mais surtout l’ajout d’ARCANO

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SOMMAIRE

1/ FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) et autres sources

2/ INCREMENTUM

3/ Phoenix Capital

4/ Truth in accounting & US Debt Clock

5/ Gordon LONG

6/ Jim GRANT

7/ Bruno BERTEZ

8/ BAWERK

9/ Ambrose EVANS-PRITCHARD

10/ Charles HUGH-SMITH

11/ Albert EDWARDS

12/ ARCANO

13/ IIF (The Institute of International Finance)

14/ CMG (Capital Management Group)

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1/ FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) et autres sources

FED – All Federal Reserve Banks – Total assets = 4 473 Mds US$ (20160922)

fed-all-federal-reserve-banks-total-assets

NATIXIS :

banques-centrales-base-monetaire

FED – Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions = 2 000 Mds US$ (201612)

fed-excess-reserves-of-depository-institutions

FED – All sectors – Debt securities and loans = 63 460 Mds US$ (20160325) (Household, Business, State and Local Gouvernments, Financial Institutions and the Federal Government)

fed-all-sectors-debt-securities-and-loans

FED – Federal Debt – Total Public Debt = 19 380 Mds US$ (Q2 2016)

fed-federal-debt-total-public-debt

FED – Loans and leases in bank credit = 8 980 Mds US$ (201608)

FED - loans and leases in bank credit

FED – Nonfinancial corporate business debt = 5 760 Mds US$ (Q2 2016)

fed-nonfinancial-corporate-business-debt sp500-except-financials-debt-to-ebitda-ratio-since-2000

FED – Dettes des ménages USA (US Households) = 14 230 Mds US$ (Q4 2015)

FED - dettes des ménages USA 14 230 Mds Q4 2015

FED – Dettes des ménages – crédit à la consommation = 3 780 Mds US$ (Q3 2017)

US - households consumer credit Q3 2017

FED – Total revolving credit = 1 000 Mds US$ (sept 2017)

US - total revolving credit sept 2017

FED – Total student loans = 1 490 Mds US$ (Q3 2017)

US - student loans Q3 2017

FED – consumer loans : credit cards and other revolving plans = 760 Mds US$ (dec 2017)

US - consumer loans - credit cards and other revolving plans dec 2017

FED – Real disposable personal income = 39 300 US$ (nov 2017)

US - real disposable personal income - per capita

FED – Personal saving rate = 2.9 % (nov 2017)

US - personal saving rate nov 2017

FED – Personal interest payments = 300 Mds$ (oct 2017)

US - personal interest payments oct 2017

UKBusinessInsider – Total Debt balance and its composition (US Households) = 12 290 Mds US$ (Q2 2016)

UKBusinessInsider - Total Debt balance and its composition

USA - student loans and car loans

USA - debt driven consumption

USA - debt used to maintain standard of living

USA - type of debt - average - total

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-08/conundrum-debt-tax-cuts-economy

Japan - GDP and pc of debt

 

FED – Total consumer credit / GDP (US) = 0.20 (record !)

fred-credit-a-la-consommation-aux-usa-en-pc-du-pib

FED – Corporate profits after tax = 1 600 Mds US$ (Q2 2016)

FED - Corporate profits after tax Q4 2015 1,423

Pouvoir d’achat du dollar US depuis 1913 :

FED – Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers : Purchasing power of the consumer dollar

fed-cpi-for-all-urban-consumers-purchasing-power-of-the-dollar

Chute de l’investissement privé :

FED – Net domestic investment – Private

fed-net-domestic-investment-private

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2/ INCREMENTUM (Rapports : In Gold we trust 2015 et 2016)

Dettes publiques (government), des ménages (household) et des entreprises (corporate) :

Dette USA 2015 = 98+79+71 = 248% GDP = 40 900 Mds US$ (GDP 2015 = 16 490 Mds US$)

Dette Pays de la zone euro 2015 = 105+61+104 = 270% GDP

Dette Japon 2015 = 246+66+102 = 414% GDP

Incrementum 2016 page5

Total credit market debt 2014 (the broadest debt aggregate in the US) = 60 000 Mds US$

Incrementum 2016 page23

Total des bilans des principales Banques Centrales (FED + BCE + BNS + PBoC + BoJ) = 16 000 Mds US$ (il manque la Bank of England BoE)

Incrementum 2016 page14

Corrélation entre l’action de politique monétaire de la FED et le SP500 depuis 2009 :

Incrementum 2016 page30

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3/ Phoenix Capital

Aout/Septembre 2016

1)   The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

Tech bubble (2001) : about $15 trillion in size

Housing bubble (2008) : about $30 trillion in size

Bond bubble : over $100 trillion in size ($140 trillion sovereign+corporate bonds ?)

phoenix-capital-global-bond-market

2)   The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

3)   Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

4)   Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller has noted, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion : an amount equal total nearly 50% of US GDP.

5)   The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

6)   The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion. Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

(…)

Globally, over $13 trillion in debt currently have negative yields in nominal terms, meaning the bond literally has a negative yield when it trades. In the simplest of terms this means that investors are PAYING to own these bonds.

Sovereign bonds are the senior most assets in the financial system. If they are in a bubble, EVERYTHING is in a bubble.

In this context, there is literally no such thing as real price discovery anywhere in the markets anymore. There are simply dozens of smaller bubbles all created by investors reacting to the bond bubble.

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4/ Truth in accounting & US Debt Clock

http://www.truthinaccounting.org/

au 12 novembre 2016 :

US Published National Debt = 19 482 Mds US$

The Truth = 87 096 Mds US$

http://www.usdebtclock.org/#

au 22 décembre 2016 :

US National Debt = 19 944 Mds US$

US Total Debt = 66 614 Mds US$ (Household, Business, State and Local Gouvernments, Financial Institutions and the Federal Government)

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5/ Gordon LONG

http://www.gordontlong.com

http://www.24hgold.com

Le graphique suivant montre que la coordination de leurs politiques de création monétaire par les banques centrales du monde, qui visent à empêcher les marchés de plonger, fonctionne encore pour le moment.

24hGold - Les banques centrale...

Attendez-vous à ce qu’une crise des devises s’abatte sur les marchés financiers en 2017.

24hGold - Les banques centrale...

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky

On appelle parfois « moment Minsky » le point où les investisseurs surendettés sont contraints de vendre en masse leurs actifs pour faire face à leur besoin de liquidité, déclenchant une spirale de baisse auto-entretenue du prix de ces actifs et un assèchement de la liquidité.

L’une des idées centrales de Minsky, exprimée dans Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986), est que la stabilité engendre l’instabilité, le capitalisme lui-même se déséquilibrant intrinsèquement : se lassant de profits modérés, les investisseurs, en période de croissance, commencent à prendre des risques plus élevés, mettant en péril la stabilité du système. Dès lors, seule une régulation financière peut permettre de limiter la spéculation et de prolonger une croissance stable.

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6/ Jim GRANT

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-05/jim-grant-asks-when-world-will-realize-central-bankers-have-lost-their-marbles

The ratio of total debt (excluding off-balance-sheet liabilities) :

total debt in China = 350% GDP

total debt in USA = 370% GDP

total debt in Eurozone = 457% GDP

total debt in Japan = 615% GDP

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7/ Bruno BERTEZ

La montagne d’artifices qui fait tenir la pyramide sur la pointe

Septembre 2016

Les Banques Centrales achètent pour 2,5 trillions de papiers, d’assets par an ! 200 milliards par mois ! (principalement la BCE, la BoJ et la BoE, car la FED est en mode tapering. Elles achètent principalement des dettes souveraines).

Que va -t-il se passer quand elles vont être obligées de ralentir leurs achats. Elles sont les principaux propriétaires d’actifs financiers. Leur bilan représente maintenant 40% du GDP mondial. La norme orthodoxe était de l’ordre de 7 à 8%.

Croissance mensuelle des actifs détenus par les Banques Centrales

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8/ BAWERK

8.1/

http://bawerk.net/2015/08/28/that-70s-show-episode-4/

Total credit market debt 1840 - present

Source: History of the United States from Colonial times to 1970, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bawerk.net

Ttoal credit market debt by category

Source: Federal Reserve, Bawerk.net

http://bawerk.net/2013/07/08/the-importance-of-efficient-capital-allocation/

1) Good debt (Productive Debt) – debt issued with the intent of making a subsequent sale. Within this category we find business loans that are made to increase future production through efficient investment of capital today, in order to facilitate debt payback in the future.

2) Bad debt (Counterproductive Debt) – is consumptive in nature, but may provide a useful service to the debtor. For example, taking on debt to buy a house near work is useful, but it does not increase future productivity and if too much debt is allocated into house building the bust becomes inevitable. We also include financial sector loans and foreign loans in this category.

3) Destructive debt – is pure consumption such as consumer credit loans that withdraw capital from society without providing anything back. On the contrary, the very fact that capital has been consumed today without ever being able to replace it means future production must inevitable drop. Naturally we also include all debt held by government in this category.

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8.2/

http://bawerk.net/2013/08/19/debt-excess-and-the-liquidation-process-in-a-historical-context/

Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly; Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts; Bureau of Economic Analysis; own calculations

Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly; Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts; Bureau of Economic Analysis; own calculations

Conclusion

We are currently at the peak of a 60-year-old debt supercycle that is imploding before our eyes. The question we need to ask ourselves is what this implosion will look like. When a system is managed to the extent it is today, a free float of market forces would undoubtedly lead to a massive liquidation of outstanding debt.

However, a proactive central bank coupled with a political elite that find it expedient to rely on monetary manipulation rather than structural reforms is historically a well-trodden path toward rampant inflation.

It all comes down to this: Do you think the Federal Reserve has the political will to monetize trillions in bad debt ?

We find it fitting to end today’s missive with a quote from the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (Human Action, page 572) :

“The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

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8.3/

http://bawerk.net/2016/05/19/fed-suppression-long-term-economic-repression/

Fed Capital Ratio

On a ici un leverage ratio qui est passé récemment de 1.28% (on retrouve le 78:1 de Phoenix Capital cité ci-dessus) à moins de 1%. Avant l’intervention massive en 2008 de la FED, le leverage ratio était de 4.5% (soit 22:1).

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8.4/

Ici un article vraiment technique :

http://bawerk.net/2015/11/28/unintended-consequences-of-lift-off-in-a-world-of-excess-reserves/

Fed Balance Sheet, excess reserves and FF rate Source:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – H.4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bawerk.net

Further assuming they will raise rates, very slowly to around 400 basis points, then more than $200bn of ˈcapitalˈ will have entered the financial system. This can be leveraged around 10 times in a fully loaned banking system, which equates to a massive $2 trillion dollars. In other words, the excess reserve problem will be impossible to correct without causing a major financial upheaval at some level.

« Excess Reserve » correspond aux réserves excédentaires déposées par les institutions bancaires US auprès de la FED.

FED – Excess reserves of depository institutions = 2 150 Mds US$ (Sept 2016)

fed-excess-reserves-of-depository-institutions

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8.5/

http://bawerk.net/2016/06/18/you-are-currently-living-through-the-dumbest-monetary-experimental-end-game-in-history-including-havenstein-and-gonos/

The inevitable result from such a policy has been the massive increase in debt and drop in the US balance versus the rest of the world. No matter what political leaning the country had, debt kept on rising and its mirror image, the current account balance, kept on falling. The US mortgaged their future to foreigners willing to fund this consumption spree. No one seemed to care that the US did not build up a productive capital base that could service all this debt in the future. The US, issuer of the world reserve currency, was good as gold

Cumulative CA Deficit vs. Political Landscape

Cumulative CA Balance = cumulative current account balance (le compte courant est la mesure du commerce international d’un pays, en biens, services et transferts unilatéraux. Avec les chiffres des exportations et importations, il montre les tendances du commerce extérieur du pays).

The global economy was, and is, essentially running on a dollar standard and the Federal Reserve of the United States increasingly became the central bank of the world. A setback in global trade would affect all parties involved, and the transmitter were the US dollar. A contraction in dollar claims as created by the world’s banking system had the ability to derail the whole global system. The ebb and flow of US dollar denominated credit gradually morphed into the global economy. The Federal Reserve had to secure dollar liquidity to the global banking system, no matter where the bank were domiciled.

With the Federal Reserve suppressing any natural correction mechanism, the global economic system has been moulded into a perversion. A perversion that simply cannot be allowed its natural course because its legacy of capital misallocation would be too much to bear.

Of course, if it is not sustainable it will not continue ad infinitum. Our money masters are just postponing the inevitable bust that will eventually correct these imbalances through worldwide capital re-allocation. This earthquake of an economic downturn has been building tensions for so long that the consequences will be mass unemployment and financial losses like never seen before. Political upheaval and social unrest undoubtedly follows.

We are actually living through the end-game of the greatest Keynesian monetary experiment as we type. It was one hell of a party while it lasted, but the hangover is now over us.

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8.6/

http://bawerk.net/2016/07/29/the-fomc-butterfly-that-will-ruin-the-world/

Even worse, hiking the dollar rate when global central banks, like the ECB and BoJ are moving full throttle forward with their QE programs makes the situation even more precarious for the Federal Reserve. Stunning as it may be, but global QE, in USD term, is currently running at a record rate with monthly liquidity expansions of USD150 – 180bn (h/t ZeroHedge).Sequential change in CB ex PBoC Balance Sheet

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9/ Ambrose EVANS-PRITCHARD

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

16 Septembre 2016 – China facing full-blown banking crisis

China’s total credit reached 255pc of GDP at the end of last year, a jump of 107 percentage points over eight years. This is an extremely high level for a developing economy and is still rising fast .

Outstanding loans have reached $28 trillion, as much as the commercial banking systems of the US and Japan combined. The scale is enough to threaten a worldwide shock if China ever loses control. Corporate debt alone has reached 171pc of GDP, and it is this that is keeping global regulators awake at night.

china-total-debt-to-gdp

Bond yields in the major economies normally track the growth rate of nominal GDP, but they are now far lower. Roughly $10 trillion is trading at negative rates, and this has spread into corporate debt. This historical anomaly is underpinning richly-valued stock markets at time when profit growth has collapsed.

government-bonds-with-negative-yields

(…)

The mysterious figure – possibly President Xi Jinping – called for an assault on “zombie companies” and a halt to reflexive stimulus to keep the boom going every time growth slows. The article said it is time to accept that China cannot continue to « force economic growth by levering up » and that the country must take its punishment.

emerging-market-debt

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autres graphiques sur la Chine :

China - The credit boom

ZH - forecasting China's total debt to GDP

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10/ Charles HUGH-SMITH

10.1/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-06/2016-theme-3-rise-independent-non-state-crypto-currencies

The second fatal flaw in the Keynesian Cargo Cult’s « solution » of printing and distributing « free money » is the money ends up funding worthless or even destructive uses: bridges to nowhere, ghost cities, needless MRI tests, worthless college degrees, and so on, in essentially limitless mal-investment and waste.

I propose instead that new crypto-currency money only be created when goods and services that are scarce in real-world communities are produced. I call this CLIME: the Community Labor Integrated Money Economy, and I describe how it works in my book A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All.

This is the unsustainable world of bank/state issued money: crushing debt loads across the globe. This is debt-serfdom on a planetary scale.

Debt serfdom is no longer the only option

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10.2/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-07/2016-theme-4-end-game-debt-fueled-growth

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the end-game of debt-fueled « growth. »

We can summarize the official « solution » to the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008 in one line: borrow and blow trillions–of yen, yuan, dollars, euros, reals, you name it.

The goal of borrowing and blowing trillions was to re-invigorate « growth »— any kind of « growth, » no matter how wasteful, unproductive or even counter-productive it might be: wars, nation-building, ghost cities, needless MRIs, useless college diplomas, bridge to nowhere–anything the borrowed money was squandered on counts as « growth » in the Keynesian status quo.

Unsurprisingly, this strategy yields diminishing returns as the negative returns on all this debt-fueled spending piles up. While the yield on the « investment » is either negative or only fleetingly positive, the interest due on the debt is forever. That’s the source of diminishing returns in a nutshell.

The diminishing returns on additional debt is clearly visible in these charts.

Global debt has soared but this massive stimulus has yielded subpar « growth » (and the final costs of all the astounding mal-investment have yet to be totaled):

Has borrowing and blowing $9 trillion solved any structural problem in the U.S. economy? No.

While total credit in the U.S. has exploded, GDP (a measure of actual output) has under-performed for years. The tiny decline of credit in the 2008-09 financial meltdown almost collapsed the global economy. The strategy of borrowing and blowing trillions has backed the global economy into a corner: expand debt or die.

While U.S. bank credit has expanded by 40%, GDP has risen 21.7%–roughly half the rate of credit expansion. This is diminishing returns on a vast scale.

It’s requiring more borrowed yen/yuan/dollars/euros just to keep the global economy from collapsing in a heap of impaired debt. The costs of waste, fraud and mal-investment are finally coming home to roost, and while near-zero interest rates serve to mask the future costs, near-zero rates cannot stem the rising tide of mal-investment.

Rather, near-zero rates have fueled mal-investment, waste and unproductive spending. The diminishing returns on that strategy of « growth » are inescapable.

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10.3/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-08/2016-theme-5-systemic-failure-high-finance

The implicit promise of the neoliberal project is that liberalizing private-sector markets and credit will magically grease the processes of growth and widespread prosperity. (…)

But alas, the games are rigged; the financiers have first access to the Federal Reserve’s nearly free money, and insiders profit from stock buybacks and other financial gaming that generates monumental profits but zero goods and services.

If debt had grown in parallel with GDP and inflation, total credit market debt in the U.S. would be around $20+ trillion rather than $59 trillion. The difference is speculative excess, manifested in asset bubbles and staggering amounts of debt.

The casino’s losers get the debt, the winners skim the profits.

The only possible output of this system is rising income and wealth inequality:

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10.4/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-22/why-massive-expansion-money-hasnt-trickled-down-rest-us

The next expansion of GDP–Housing Bubble #1–required an enormous expansion of credit and about double the growth in money stock as the Internet boom.

The current « recovery »–what I term the central bank credit bubble–has required a monumental increase in money stock and a non-trivial expansion of credit.

This is the very definition of diminishing returns: Every expansion of GDP is weaker but requires vastly greater expansions of money stock and total credit.

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11/ Albert EDWARDS

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/never-been-higher

quoted company corporate debt has rocketed relative to assets to now exceed the madness last seen at the height of the 2000 TMT bubble.

Indeed the problem with Summers’ analysis in my view is that it is the higher debt that is being used to push up asset values (via share buybacks), just as it did during the housing bubble in 2005-7. And by pushing asset values well beyond fundamentals you build debt structures on false asset values, which only become apparent when the asset bubble bursts.

In the next recession a sharp decline in both profits and the equity market will reveal this Vortex of Debility. US corporate spreads will then explode as the economy is overwhelmed by corporate defaults and bankruptcies.

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12/ ARCANO

source : Apocalypse Now ? octobre 2016

Real estate assets (immobilier) : « Traditionally, housing is valued with a multiple between home price and household income, with the historical multiple of OECD contries standing close to 6.5 years of income ».

arcano-oct-2016-world-value-of-house-to-income

« Traditionally, central bankers asserted that their mission was not to « cut the last round of drinks at the party », but to « mop when the party is over ».

INFLATION

Evolution de l’inflation aux USA et en UK depuis 1200 (attention, échelle log) :

arcano-oct-2016-inflation-since-1200-in-us-and-uk

DETTES SOUVERAINES (SOVEREIGN BOND)

Dettes souveraines – Banques Centrales ayant poussées les taux d’intérêts en territoire négatif :

arcano-oct-2016-interest-rates-below-zero

Dettes souveraines – Taux négatifs : 30% du total (attention, il s’agit ici d’un total de $45 trillion (??)) :

arcano-oct-2016-pc-of-the-sovereign-bond-market-in-negative-yield

Dettes souveraines – Evolution du Bund allemand d’échéance 10 ans, depuis 1800 :

arcano-oct-2016-yield-on-german-10-year-bond

Dettes souveraines – Bilan des Banques Centrales en comparaison au PIB de leur zone d’influence respective :

arcano-oct-2016-central-banks-assets-pc-of-gdp

Dettes souveraines – Part des titres sur le marché détenue par sa Banque Centrale pour les principales zones

arcano-oct-2016-central-banks-holdings-government-debt

EPARGNE (SAVINGS)

Epargne des ménages et des entreprises :

arcano-oct-2016-household-savings-rates

TAUX D’INTERET (INTEREST RATES)

Comparaison des taux d’intérêt à venir entre le FOMC (FED) et le marché :

arcano-oct-2016-interest-rates-expectation-fomc-vs-market

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13/ IIF (The Institute of International Finance)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-debt-iif-idUSKBN14O1PQ

Global debt levels rose to more than 325 percent of the world’s gross domestic product last year as government debt rose sharply, a report from the Institute for International Finance showed on Wednesday.

The IIF’s report found that global debt had risen more than $11 trillion in the first nine months of 2016 to more than $217 trillion. The report also found that general government debt accounted for nearly half of the total increase.

Emerging market debt rose substantially, as government bond and syndicated loan issuance in 2016 grew to almost three times its 2015 level. China accounted for the lion’s share of the new debt, providing $710 million of the total $855 billion in new issuance during the year, the IIF reported.

CHINA

iif-china-total-debt-to-gdp

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14/ CMG (Capital Management Group)

world-domestic-debt-in-usd-and-pc-of-gdp

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McKinsey

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Evon VON GERZ

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Stanley DRUCKENMILLER

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Une réflexion au sujet de « Dettes – le crédit est il à la fin de son cycle ? #4 »

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